1. To identify the tipping points in ocean physics and biogeochemistry, as well as regions of probable changes, ‘hot spots’, from observations and standard CMIP model scenarios.
2. To assess the probability of reaching tipping points and quantify the potential impact on biogeochemistry and lower trophic levels when a tipping point is reached.
3. To identify potential drivers of processes that trigger tipping points in hot spot regions through statistical analysis of standard CMIP model simulations, coupled climate and ocean-ecosystem models at a range of resolutions and observations.
4. To quantify the potential for “unconsidered” tipping points from critical knowledge gaps that are currently not represented in Earth system models (ESMs).
1. To quantify the dynamics of oceanic, atmospheric and land surface processes that potentially lead to tipping points
2. To assess the distribution and changes of extreme events and their role for crossing a tipping point
3. To estimate the proximity of tipping points and to identify early warning indicators
4. To assess the potential of reversibility and irreversibility of tipping points
1. To determine the impacts of climate-induced changes on the functioning of biological systems driven by key biological first principles in the global ocean and regional seas and basins.
2. To quantify the impacts, risks, and thresholds for habitat conditions, ecosystem changes, and fisheries demonstrating the effects of multiple stressors, propagation to higher trophic levels, and identifying early-warning indicators for critical impacts.
1. To assess the overall impacts of abrupt climatic changes and anthropogenic impacts on ocean health.
2. To analyse past and current safe operating spaces in diverse marine ecosystems using an integrated assessment approach.
3. To identify future risks of tipping points and safe operating spaces across future mitigation scenarios.
1. To combine the new knowledge on tipping elements with new information about model uncertainties for determining multiple mitigation targets and related metrics for limits of damage.
2. To provide assessments on the effectiveness in reaching mitigation targets, the feasibility and potential risks and side effects of technical ocean mitigation measures.
3. Identification of suitable scenarios for staying within “safe operating spaces” (i.e., planetary boundaries).
1. To provide scenario projections with an ensemble of ESMs for the 21st to 23rd centuries, provide non-standard (e.g. high frequency) output for the project.
2. To investigate the robustness of ESM projections with respect to mitigation metrics developed in WP5 and to constrain the ensemble of ESM projections better with respect to abrupt changes of oxygen concentration, acidification, and biomass production.
3. To run selected mitigation scenarios in an ensemble of ESMs. To synthesize results from standard and mitigation scenario runs from WP 5 and 6.
1. Combine stakeholder knowledge with the project results to shape the project’s final outcome.
2. Support major international scientific assessments such as the IPCC
3. Prepare results for decision and policy makers towards management of the Earth system.
4. Make project results easily accessible for stakeholders.
1. Providing continuous technical and organizational data management for observational and model output data according to the requirements of the H2020 Open Research Data Pilot and FAIR ensuring open access to all peerreviewed scientific publications relating to its results.
2. Supporting global programs/initiatives and support the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations.
3. Providing a common disk space for exchange of new data sets (model, observation) and meta-information for access of already existing data sets.
The overall objective of WP9 is to ensure the COMFORT project reaches all its project objectives as part of its obligations under the EC Grant Agreement. In particular, WP9 will:
1. Ensure efficient scientific, administrative and financial management of the project.
2. Monitor project progress and coordinate reporting to the European Commission.
3. Ensure and monitor efficient exploitation and dissemination of project results.
4. Communicate project activities towards relevant target audiences.
The objective is to ensure compliance with the ‘ethics requirements’ set out in this work package.