Oschlies, A. (2021). A committed fourfold increase in ocean oxygen loss. Nature Communications, 12(1), 2307. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22584-4
Summary:
Less than a quarter of ocean deoxygenation that will ultimately be caused by historical CO2 emissions is already realized, according to millennial-scale model simulations that assume zero CO2 emissions from year 2021 onwards. About 80% of the committed oxygen loss occurs below 2000 m depth, where a more sluggish overturning circulation will increase water residence times and accumulation of respiratory oxygen demand. According to the model results, the deep ocean will thereby lose more than 10% of its pre-industrial oxygen content even if CO2 emissions and thus global warming were stopped today. In the surface layer, however, the ongoing deoxygenation will largely stop once CO2 emissions are stopped. Accounting for the joint effects of committed oxygen loss and ocean warming, metabolic viability representative for marine animals declines by up to 25% over large regions of the deep ocean, posing an unavoidable escalation of anthropogenic pressure on deep-ocean ecosystems.
Policy relevant message:
In the surface layer, the ongoing deoxygenation will largely stop once CO2 emissions are stopped. The deep ocean, however, will lose more than 10% of its pre-industrial oxygen content even if CO2 emissions and thus global warming were stopped today, posing an unavoidable escalation of anthropogenic pressure on deep-ocean ecosystems.