Spring, A., Dunkl, I., Li, H., Brovkin, V., & Ilyina, T. (2021). Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycle. Earth Syst. Dynam., 12(4), 1139–1167. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021
Summary
Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. In this study the authors tested such an assumption and found that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.