Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, JR, Dunne, JP, Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, JG, Lenton, A ., Li, H., Lovenduski, NS, Orr, JC, Palmieri, J., Santana-Falcón, Y., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Stock, CA,… Ziehn, T. (2020). Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections. Biogeosciences, 17 (13), 3439–3470. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020
In this study, 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models were assessed. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.