Pinsky, M. L., Rogers, L. A., Morley, J. W., & Frölicher, T. L. (2020). Ocean planning for species on the move provides substantial benefits and requires few trade-offs. Science Advances, 6(50), eabb8428. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb8428
Societies increasingly use multisector ocean planning as a tool to mitigate conflicts over space in the sea, but such plans can be highly sensitive to species redistribution driven by climate change or other factors. A key uncertainty is whether planning ahead for future species redistributions imposes high opportunity costs and sharp trade-offs against current ocean plans. In this study, more than 10,000 projections for marine animals around North America were used to test the impact of climate-driven species redistributions on the ability of ocean plans to meet their goals. Planning for redistributions can substantially reduce exposure to risks from climate change with little additional area set aside and with few trade-offs against current ocean plan effectiveness. Networks of management areas are a key strategy. While climate change will severely disrupt many human activities, the authors find a strong benefit to proactively planning for long-term ocean change.