WP 1 Ocean state under climate change

Lead beneficiary: NOC

Workpackage leader: Judith Hauck

Workpackage co-leader: Yevgeny Aksenov

1. To identify the tipping points in ocean physics and biogeochemistry, as well as regions of probable changes, ‘hot spots’, from observations and standard CMIP model scenarios.
2. To assess the probability of reaching tipping points and quantify the potential impact on biogeochemistry and lower trophic levels when a tipping point is reached.
3. To identify potential drivers of processes that trigger tipping points in hot spot regions through statistical analysis of standard CMIP model simulations, coupled climate and ocean-ecosystem models at a range of resolutions and observations.
4. To quantify the potential for “unconsidered” tipping points from critical knowledge gaps that are currently not represented in Earth system models (ESMs).