Lead beneficiary: SMHI
Workpackage leader: Helena Martins
Workpackage co-leader: Dagmara Rusiecka
1. Combine stakeholder knowledge with the project results to shape the project’s final outcome.
2. Support major international scientific assessments such as the IPCC
3. Prepare results for decision and policy makers towards management of the Earth system.
4. Make project results easily accessible for stakeholders.
Lead beneficiary: NORCE
Workpackage leader: Jörg Schwinger
Workpackage co-leader: Laurent Bopp
1. To provide scenario projections with an ensemble of ESMs for the 21st to 23rd centuries, provide non-standard (e.g. high frequency) output for the project.
2. To investigate the robustness of ESM projections with respect to mitigation metrics developed in WP5 and to constrain the ensemble of ESM projections better with respect to abrupt changes of oxygen concentration, acidification, and biomass production.
3. To run selected mitigation scenarios in an ensemble of ESMs. To synthesize results from standard and mitigation scenario runs from WP 5 and 6.
Lead beneficiary: GEOMAR
Workpackage leader: David Keller
Workpackage co-leader: Andreas Oschlies
1. To combine the new knowledge on tipping elements with new information about model uncertainties for determining multiple mitigation targets and related metrics for limits of damage.
2. To provide assessments on the effectiveness in reaching mitigation targets, the feasibility and potential risks and side effects of technical ocean mitigation measures.
3. Identification of suitable scenarios for staying within “safe operating spaces” (i.e., planetary boundaries).
Lead beneficiary: SU
Workpackage leader: Thorsten Blenckner (project co-ordinator)
Workpackage co-leader: Christian Möllman
1. To assess the overall impacts of abrupt climatic changes and anthropogenic impacts on ocean health.
2. To analyse past and current safe operating spaces in diverse marine ecosystems using an integrated assessment approach.
3. To identify future risks of tipping points and safe operating spaces across future mitigation scenarios.
Lead beneficiary: NERSC
Workpackage leader: Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu
Workpackage co-leader: Ulf Dieckmann
1. To determine the impacts of climate-induced changes on the functioning of biological systems driven by key biological first principles in the global ocean and regional seas and basins.
2. To quantify the impacts, risks, and thresholds for habitat conditions, ecosystem changes, and fisheries demonstrating the effects of multiple stressors, propagation to higher trophic levels, and identifying early-warning indicators for critical impacts.
Lead beneficiary: UBERN
Workpackage leader: Thomas Frölicher
Workpackage co-leader: Stephanie Henson
1. To quantify the dynamics of oceanic, atmospheric and land surface processes that potentially lead to tipping points
2. To assess the distribution and changes of extreme events and their role for crossing a tipping point
3. To estimate the proximity of tipping points and to identify early warning indicators
4. To assess the potential of reversibility and irreversibility of tipping points
Lead beneficiary: NOC
Workpackage leader: Judith Hauck
Workpackage co-leader: Yevgeny Aksenov
1. To identify the tipping points in ocean physics and biogeochemistry, as well as regions of probable changes, ‘hot spots’, from observations and standard CMIP model scenarios.
2. To assess the probability of reaching tipping points and quantify the potential impact on biogeochemistry and lower trophic levels when a tipping point is reached.
3. To identify potential drivers of processes that trigger tipping points in hot spot regions through statistical analysis of standard CMIP model simulations, coupled climate and ocean-ecosystem models at a range of resolutions and observations.
4. To quantify the potential for “unconsidered” tipping points from critical knowledge gaps that are currently not represented in Earth system models (ESMs).